Greenland

The centre-right Liberal Party-led minority Government elected in June 2015 is unlikely to last through its full term to 2019. BMI’s Short-term Political Risk Index for Denmark captures the risk of a potential snap election at any time, with a relatively low score of 85.0 in the “policy-continuity” sub-component, weighing on the overall score of 90.6. The risks are highlighted by a budget dispute in late 2016 that nearly resulted in fresh elections taking place, and a rise in the popularity of anti-immigrant political parties, including the Danish People's Party and a new upstart party, Nye Borgerlige.

  • 78.50
    Country Risk Score
    74.90
    Operational Risk Score
  • Economic Risk Index
    66.50
    Short Term
    74.00
    Long Term
  • Political Risk Index
    88.10
    Short Term
    92.70
    Long Term

Ghana

Opposition leader Nana Akufo-Addo of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) won the December 2016 elections. Defeated president John Mahama's swift acceptance of the results confirms Ghana's status as a mature democracy by West African standards. However, there is likely to be little tangible policy deviation following the NPP's victory, given that the main parties mainly differ on which part of the country they draw their support. Crucially, following the NPP's victory, it is expected that the authorities will continue to follow the IMF programme entered in 2015 - a positive for investor confidence and the economy at large. Longer-term political risks stem from Ghana's north-south divide and the challenge of managing the country's newly emerging oil windfall.

  • 55.50
    Country Risk Score
    45.90
    Operational Risk Score
  • Economic Risk Index
    46.70
    Short Term
    48.90
    Long Term
  • Political Risk Index
    72.10
    Short Term
    73.50
    Long Term

Greece

Greece scores 52.5 out of 100 in BMI’s Short-term Political Risk Index, which is the worst of any eurozone county, and further downgrades are possible given the increasingly clouded nature of policy making. Although the country successfully agreed a third EUR85 billion bailout with its creditors in August 2015 and passed the first review in October 2016, temporarily ending “Grexit” fears, the policy outlook has not improved substantially. The Syriza Government, which was re-elected in September 2015, will struggle to implement structural and fiscal conditions attached to the new bailout, and will find it difficult to retain domestic support as these reforms inflict further pain on the electorate. There is a risk that frequent elections will become a recurring theme in Greek politics over the coming years.

  • 54.60
    Country Risk Score
    59.30
    Operational Risk Score
  • Economic Risk Index
    47.70
    Short Term
    49.00
    Long Term
  • Political Risk Index
    52.50
    Short Term
    59.80
    Long Term

Guatemala

Guatemala will face significant political challenges in the years ahead. These include corruption, severe legislative gridlock, and weak enforcement of law. The country has made progress in combating corruption in the last few years, but substantive reforms to the security and judicial institutions will be key to cementing these early victories. President Jimmy Morales was elected on an anti-corruption platform in October 2015, but his reform agenda will face significant legislative challenges. Guatemala's poor security environment will remain another driver of political risk, impacted by high levels of poverty and the influence of drug-trafficking organisations.

  • 47.70
    Country Risk Score
    40.00
    Operational Risk Score
  • Economic Risk Index
    57.10
    Short Term
    56.30
    Long Term
  • Political Risk Index
    44.20
    Short Term
    48.90
    Long Term

Guinea

Political risks will rise in Guinea over the next several years, given indications that President Alpha Condé will become the latest Sub-Saharan African president to attempt to extend his time in office beyond his constitutionally limited two terms. In order to serve a third term, Condé would have to hold a constitutional referendum and introduce a new statute book altogether, given that the one introduced in 2010 holds a specific bar on changing the constitution in order to alter the length or number of terms a president can serve. Although similar obstacles were relatively easy to overcome in 2016 in Congo-Brazzaville and Rwanda, there could be quite different circumstances in Guinea, and such a move could precipitate conflict.

  • 36.90
    Country Risk Score
    27.30
    Operational Risk Score
  • Economic Risk Index
    35.80
    Short Term
    37.80
    Long Term
  • Political Risk Index
    53.30
    Short Term
    40.00
    Long Term

Guinea-Bissau

Ongoing political uncertainty in Guinea-Bissau will continue to hold back economic development, with the power struggle which erupted in August 2015 when President José Mário Vaz sacked Prime Minister Domingos Simões Pereira still continuing more than a year later. The failure of successive governments has delayed policy formation and will continue to undermine security in the country. Although, in a positive development, the military has remained apart from the current dispute.

  • 31.80
    Country Risk Score
    23.30
    Operational Risk Score
  • Economic Risk Index
    44.00
    Short Term
    40.00
    Long Term
  • Political Risk Index
    34.40
    Short Term
    25.90
    Long Term

Guyana

Guyana's Short-term Political Risk Index score is well below the Caribbean average. The Government has a weak mandate and will continue to struggle to rule. Tensions have also risen sharply with neighbouring Venezuela, which claims a large proportion of Guyanese territory (the resource-rich Essequibo region). Meanwhile, a crackdown on drug smuggling in Central America has forced narco-traffickers to seek alternative routes through the Caribbean in recent years, with a growing number beginning to use Guyana as a cocaine transhipment point, given its porous borders and geographic location. While this has not yet triggered substantial violence, the risk remains, especially if the Government decides to take a more forceful approach. The increased presence of transnational criminal groups will also make it harder to eliminate corruption.

  • 44.50
    Country Risk Score
    36.40
    Operational Risk Score
  • Economic Risk Index
    47.90
    Short Term
    39.50
    Long Term
  • Political Risk Index
    53.80
    Short Term
    53.00
    Long Term

Haiti

Haiti suffers from a volatile political environment, marked by extremely weak institutions, a fragmented party system, and continued challenges to the Government's legitimacy. An elected successor to former President Michel Martelly is unlikely to be sworn in before early 2017, more than a year behind schedule, due to delays caused by violence, accusations of election fraud, and natural disaster. The legislature is split among more than a dozen parties, and the eventual president-elect will likely be tainted by popular distrust of the electoral process. This suggests little improvement to Haiti's dysfunctional policy-making environment in 2017.

  • 30.40
    Country Risk Score
    27.80
    Operational Risk Score
  • Economic Risk Index
    29.60
    Short Term
    32.20
    Long Term
  • Political Risk Index
    32.90
    Short Term
    32.30
    Long Term

Honduras

Political risk will remain high in Honduras in the coming years. The decision of President Juan Orlando Hernandez to run for a second term in 2017, following a Supreme Court decision to void term limits, will increase uncertainty and contribute to political instability, as the opposition will challenge the move early in the year. Additionally, a weak security environment, characterised by a strong presence of local gangs and international drug trafficking organisations, will persist. Furthermore, corruption will remain endemic, after a series of scandals broke out in 2015 and 2016. While the Government's willingness to work with protesters will limit a significant increase in political unrest, there is limited scope for substantive reforms in 2017.

  • 46.00
    Country Risk Score
    39.60
    Operational Risk Score
  • Economic Risk Index
    52.50
    Short Term
    50.60
    Long Term
  • Political Risk Index
    46.00
    Short Term
    47.50
    Long Term

Hong Kong

Hong Kong scores highly (81.0) in BMI’s Short-term Political Risk Index, but the territory's Long-term Political Risk Index score of 71.3 is constrained by the enduring influence of Beijing. The mass anti-government protests of 2014 demonstrated a high degree of dissatisfaction with the absence of democracy, and this sentiment is starting to surface again ahead of the selection of the new Chief Executive in March 2017. China has ruled out full universal suffrage, and locals remain concerned about the durability of the “one country, two systems” model under which Hong Kong enjoys broad autonomy from the mainland. These concerns have prompted the emergence of a small independence movement in the territory.

  • 77.50
    Country Risk Score
    81.30
    Operational Risk Score
  • Economic Risk Index
    75.80
    Short Term
    74.30
    Long Term
  • Political Risk Index
    81.00
    Short Term
    71.30
    Long Term

Hungary

Although Hungary is a consolidated democracy, concerns are rising over its long-term trajectory. The governing Fidesz party's policy agenda has become increasingly populist and authoritarian, engendering a difficult operating environment for large corporations and deteriorating relations with the EU. This is likely to be worsened by the consequences surrounding the October 2016 migrant quota referendum and an upcoming general election in 2018, which will see Fidesz shift further to the right on its policy agenda.

  • 67.20
    Country Risk Score
    61.80
    Operational Risk Score
  • Economic Risk Index
    63.30
    Short Term
    67.20
    Long Term
  • Political Risk Index
    75.60
    Short Term
    73.80
    Long Term

Iceland

Iceland fundamentally remains one of the most politically stable countries in the world, with little-to-no threat of significant destabilisation in the long term. In the short term, the inconclusive outcome of the 2016 general election, engendered by an electorate dissatisfied with the main political parties, will make policy formation more complicated and increase the risk of fractures within governing coalitions. A new government is expected to be in place by early 2017, but a new round of elections cannot rule out.

  • 74.00
    Country Risk Score
    68.30
    Operational Risk Score
  • Economic Risk Index
    68.10
    Short Term
    66.10
    Long Term
  • Political Risk Index
    82.90
    Short Term
    90.20
    Long Term

India

India's Short-term Political Risk Index score stands at 77.7, reflecting improvements in policy-making achieved by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led coalition, despite its lack of majority in the Upper House. However, “big bang reforms”, such as the nation-wide Goods & Services Tax (GST) system, are likely to face delays in 2017, as the Government’s move in November 2016 to demonetise high-denomination currency notes will likely dent its popular support and create greater unity in the opposition. At the same time, tensions with Pakistan are rising over Kashmir. India's Long-term Political Risk Index score of 73.1 remains weighed down by a poor “characteristics of society” score, which reflects the country's high level of poverty and an ethnically, linguistically, and religiously diverse population. Its strong democratic fundamentals, however, boost its “characteristics of polity score”.

  • 62.70
    Country Risk Score
    46.10
    Operational Risk Score
  • Economic Risk Index
    67.50
    Short Term
    65.30
    Long Term
  • Political Risk Index
    77.70
    Short Term
    73.10
    Long Term

Indonesia

Indonesia is still a relatively new democracy struggling to reduce corruption and implement economic reforms. Residual separatist sentiment in parts of the country is largely contained, although the state faces the risk of Islamist terrorist attacks. Religious tensions have been rising, with conservative Islamic forces gaining momentum. Indonesia performs poorly in BMI’s Long-term Political Risk Index, scoring 63.4, with a weak state limiting its “scope of state” score, and high levels of poverty and a heterogeneous society constraining its 'characteristics of society' score.

  • 62.80
    Country Risk Score
    52.30
    Operational Risk Score
  • Economic Risk Index
    68.10
    Short Term
    67.90
    Long Term
  • Political Risk Index
    72.90
    Short Term
    63.40
    Long Term

Iran

Iran's geopolitical and economic fortunes have improved following the removal of most sanctions in January 2016. The easing of sanctions will benefit President Rouhani ahead of May 2017 elections. However, there is still a risk that the nuclear deal will collapse, if hard-liners reassert their influence in Washington (especially under Trump's presidency) and Tehran. Meanwhile, Iran continues to wage proxy wars against Sunni Arab countries in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, draining its military resources. Over the long term, a power struggle could emerge when Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei passes away, or anti-regime protests could gain renewed momentum if the leadership continues to suppress socio-economic freedoms.

  • 49.40
    Country Risk Score
    43.40
    Operational Risk Score
  • Economic Risk Index
    50.40
    Short Term
    42.60
    Long Term
  • Political Risk Index
    62.50
    Short Term
    54.00
    Long Term

Iraq

Security risks will remain elevated in Iraq after Islamic State (IS) is eventually defeated, most likely in 2017. IS will likely go underground and continue to pose a substantial terror threat to the country. Meanwhile the different sects, ethnic groups, and tribes will compete for political hegemony in the liberated areas, even as the central Government remains mired in a political crisis, and as widespread corruption slows the pace of reconstruction. In regards to the country’s long-term view, Iraq will maintain formal unity as a very fragile federalised state over the coming decade, with the Kurdistan Regional Government retaining significant autonomy.

  • 37.40
    Country Risk Score
    33.20
    Operational Risk Score
  • Economic Risk Index
    45.20
    Short Term
    44.40
    Long Term
  • Political Risk Index
    31.70
    Short Term
    36.70
    Long Term

Afghanistan

The Afghan Central Government in Kabul will struggle to defeat the Taliban insurgency, especially with Western countries having withdrawn most of their troops in 2014. Islamic State is also reportedly gaining support in Afghanistan. Overall, the war looks set to continue for some years. Even if peace were achieved, political risks would remain high, thanks to Afghanistan's ethnic diversity, high levels of poverty and illiteracy, de facto warlordism in large parts of the country, and very high degrees of corruption.

  • 30.80
    Country Risk Score
    24.20
    Operational Risk Score
  • Economic Risk Index
    36.70
    Short Term
    38.50
    Long Term
  • Political Risk Index
    40.00
    Short Term
    21.20
    Long Term

Albania

Albania's political profile has improved following the passage of six landmark pieces of legislation in October 2016, which are aimed at enhancing judicial independence and reducing political influence on judges and prosecutors. This followed legislation adopted in August, introducing stricter vetting requirements for the appointment of judges seen as vital for the commencement of EU membership negotiations. These reforms should boost Prime Minister Edi Rama's Socialist Party ahead of general elections, due in mid-2017.

  • 52.50
    Country Risk Score
    48.70
    Operational Risk Score
  • Economic Risk Index
    41.90
    Short Term
    44.60
    Long Term
  • Political Risk Index
    59.80
    Short Term
    71.30
    Long Term

Algeria

Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's fragile state of health will intensify the regime's internal divisions, with rival factions competing against each other in the battle for succession. This will nurture policy paralysis and weaken Algeria's already-limited pace of political and economic reform. Whoever ultimately emerges as the next president is highly unlikely to change the structure of the regime or improve the system of governance.

  • 51.00
    Country Risk Score
    40.00
    Operational Risk Score
  • Economic Risk Index
    51.30
    Short Term
    53.70
    Long Term
  • Political Risk Index
    60.80
    Short Term
    60.10
    Long Term

Angola

The ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) is very dominant in parliament, meaning the main opposition, União Nacional para a Independência Total de Angola (UNITA), poses little threat to the political order. Nevertheless, there is a medium-term risk to stability, as political and economic power is increasingly concentrated in the hands of a tiny elite. There is also the question of whether there will be a smooth succession after long-serving President Eduardo Dos Santos steps down before elections in late 2017. His likely successor is the defence minister, Joao Lourenco. Frustrations with the long-held political status quo in Angola could increase the risk of public protests.

  • 42.90
    Country Risk Score
    31.70
    Operational Risk Score
  • Economic Risk Index
    39.80
    Short Term
    42.90
    Long Term
  • Political Risk Index
    59.40
    Short Term
    52.10
    Long Term

Anguilla

  • 58.60
    Country Risk Score
    55.40
    Operational Risk Score
  • Economic Risk Index
    46.70
    Short Term
    47.20
    Long Term
  • Political Risk Index
    74.20
    Short Term
    72.80
    Long Term

Antigua and Barbuda

  • 57.10
    Country Risk Score
    50.70
    Operational Risk Score